Heat vs Nuggets Game 1 Odds Picks and Predictions | NBA Finals Game 1

Assuming you read my NBA Finals wagering sneak peak, you’ll see that I’ve labeled Michael Porter Jr. as the X-factor for the Nuggets.

The flexible 6-foot-10 forward is a bad dream for Miami, which has a lot of square stakes to fit into the circular opening that is MPJ. The Heat need to keep Bam Adebayo on Nikola Jokic, which leaves them only awful matchups against Porter Jr.

Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has a starting frontcourt of Adebayo, 6-foot-7 Jimmy Butler, and 6-foot-5 forward Caleb Martin, along with reserve bigs Kevin Love and Cody Zeller, who were defensive liabilities in the final games with Boston to the point where they just didn’t play.

Butler, being the second-tallest starter, could draw Porter Jr. but will likely switch between he and Denver forward Aaron Gordon, who stands 6-foot-8 but plays more like a power forward around the key. Martin will spend plenty of minutes marking Porter Jr., as the Heat will be resilient to switch Bam off Jokic, and that allows the lanky MPJ to shoot over diminutive defenders.

If Miami does march out Love or Zeller, the two lumbering bigs lack the foot speed to contain Porter Jr. off the dribble. Adebayo will be hesitant to leave Jokic on the help side, leaving Porter with a clear path to the basket. Whether he finishes there or not is another issue.

As talented and promising as Porter Jr. is, he’s softer than a fresh bag of marshmallows — the expensive kind, not the Dollar Store brand. Even at 6-foot-10, he seems to shrink inside the key and looks to pass off in opportunities from close range.

He’s struggled to be a consistent threat for the Nuggets, but found his flow against the Lakers in the Western Conference finals. Porter Jr. averaged a steady 15 points per game in that four-game series, seeing a notable uptick in his production from beyond the arc in the final two outings in L.A., in which he was 7-for-20 on 3-point attempts.

The Game 1 player projections anticipate Porter Jr. to exploit those mismatches with Miami, with my number sitting over 17 places and a few models setting the roof at 20 or more in the series opener. That makes them snatch the Over on his focuses prop in Game 1, with oddsmakers setting his forecasted scoring mark at 15.5 places (Over – 105).

Checking out at his past matchups with the Heat, Porter Jr. had results of 17 places and 10 focuses in two gatherings this season (the 17 accompanying Gordon and Jamal Murray sidelined), shooting an aggregate 10 for 19 from the field in those contests. He didn’t confront the Heat in a physical issue abbreviated 2021-22 mission yet dropped 25 and 17 focuses on Spoelstra’s safeguard in two games in 2020-21.

The 6-foot-10 Porter Jr. can either shoot over more modest protectors or pass up greater ones. He’ll hit a few 3-pointers and get simple pails inside, with my number calling for 17.2 places in Game 1.

His frontcourt mate Gordon likewise has a few positive projections Thursday. My forecast calls for 15.4 places and 3.2 assists, yet a few models are calling for as numerous as 22.6 combo details, which makes them go Over his focuses/assists prop of 15.5.

Concerning the Heat, we’re anticipating that Martin should chill after an intensely hot appearance against Boston. Martin’s point set has ticked up as high as 16.5 focuses, however his projections for Game 1 all come in somewhere around two focuses short of that imprint with my number at 12.5 focuses Thursday night. He’s been particularly sharp from beyond the bend (8-for-14 last two games) however regression and a tight Denver border guard will hold him Under this swelled aggregate.

Following the conclusion of Miami’s street dominate in Match 7 of the Eastern Conference finals, oddsmakers introduced Denver as a 8-point home favorite for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. A few different business sectors opened the Nuggets – 8.5 and others went higher to – 9.

More limited lines started to move within the initial 40 minutes as books leaped to – 9 however throughout the course of recent days, the market consensus has gotten comfortable at – 8.5 with certain books up to Nuggets – 9 starting around Wednesday morning.

According to BetMGM books, Denver has drawn 59% of bet count for the spread and 70% of the handle for Game 1. Covers Consensus currently shows a more balanced split for the opener, with just 48% of picks on the home team Thursday night.

Denver does rate out as a stronger team than Miami, but the biggest edge for Game 1 is the rest advantage for the Nuggets as well as their unique home-court advantage in the thin air in Colorado.

A series sweep of Los Angeles in the Western Conference finals has had the Nuggets off since May 22. While this downtime could be to their detriment, it gives them very fresh legs against a Heat squad that went through the grinder of a blown 3-0 series lead to the Celtics.

Miami will be just three days removed from Game 7 in Boston and that energy-sapping altitude inside Ball Arena will test the will of a Heat team that has played well beyond its seeding in the tournament. The Nuggets are a very athletic and deep team that can win the physical battles against a smaller Miami rotation.

Denver has been perfect on its own floor in the postseason, with an 8-0 SU record (5-3 ATS) at home and a +11.6 net rating as a host. That’s carried over from the regular season, where the Nuggets went 34-7 SU and 25-15-1 ATS (62%), boasting the third-highest home net rating at +9.6.

That said, the Heat haven’t been shaken by rival postseason crowds. The team is 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS as a visitor in the playoffs with a net rating of +1.5 in those contests. That wasn’t the case all season, as Miami finished the regular schedule at 16-24 SU and 15-24-1 ATS away from South Beach with a net rating of -2.1.

The Heat and Nuggets met twice in the regular season, with Denver winning both matchups and covering as a short favorite. The Nuggets beat Miami 124-119 at home on December 30, just covering as closing 4-point chalk thanks to a 39-29 push in the fourth quarter.

They likewise edged the Heat in South Ocean side on February 13, winning 112-108 as 1-point street favorites despite missing starters Murray and Gordon. Miami was likewise missing individuals from its backcourt with Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo sidelined.

The Over/Under for Game 1 opened at 218.5 places and has since move as high as 220 at some sportsbooks, while Wednesday’s market consensus has gotten comfortable at 219 with some 219.5 likewise appearing at many shops.

Miami’s last four games against the Celtics generally remained Under the aggregate, thanks by and large to changes from Boston’s guard after the initial three games player Over. The Heat (11-7 O/U in end of the season games) play a covering guard that likes to switch off screens and will carry out zone hopes to keep enemies speculating. They pull the power on one of the best offenses in the NBA, holding the Celtics to under 106 focuses against in the series.

The Nuggets (8-7 O/U in end of the season games) are a sound cautious group however it’s not their greatest strength. They do, in any case, toss a great deal of level at a more modest Miami lineup and can force the Heat to the outside, testing the validity of their 3-point shooting. Denver doesn’t surrender numerous bonus pails either, limiting focuses off turnovers as well as second-chance scores from hostile bounce back.

The ongoing Game 1 all out is a couple of focuses more limited than the end Over/Under numbers bettors found in the Western Conference finals, with the Nuggets confronting an exceptionally solid protective club in the Lakers (2-2 O/U). Concerning comparison to the ECF aggregates, this ongoing number is still altogether higher than the greater sums posted before in that series and a lot bigger than the last O/U of 204 places in Game 7.

The Heat and Nuggets went Over sums of 224.5 and 217.5 places in their two matchups this season despite those games played at a more slow speed rating of 95.5. Such a long ways in the postseason, Denver possesses a speed rating of 96.33 while Miami times in at 95.75.

As indicated by BetMGM, bet depend on the complete is a 50/50 split yet the Under has drawn 59% of the money bet on the Game 1 aggregate.